Week 5 Analytic Preview - Ohio State vs Michigan State

ProjectPat · 2024-09-27T21:21:28+00:00

The Buckeyes enter conference play ranked #3 in the country after dominating Akron, Western Michigan, and Marshall with an average margin of victory of over 45 points. Saturday night’s primetime matchup in East Lansing will provide the first “test” for this Ohio State team, so let’s dive into the analytics and what to look for tomorrow night. OHIO STATE OFFENSE vs MICHIGAN STATE DEFENSE Quinshon Judkins and TreVeyon Henderson had a field day against Marshall, as the two combined for 249 rushing yards and 4 scores. The dynamic duo might have a tougher time getting going vs the Spartans, who come in ranked 14th in the nation in yards per carry allowed at 2.61, and have held their opponents leading rusher to 67 yards or fewer in three of their four games this season. PFF grades them as the 22nd best rushing defense in the country which should lead to an intriguing battle in the trenches. Will Howard might be able to have himself a day vs this Sparty secondary, as long as the weather cooperates. The current forecast is calling for scattered showers and moderate winds, so it shouldn’t play too much of a factor. In his first road start of his Buckeye tenure, I expect Howard to shine, especially coming off a game vs Marshall where he threw his first interception. Michigan State is 67th in the country in yards per attempt allowed, 74th in coverage grade, and 83rd in opponents passing efficiency. This is shaping up to be a nice matchup for him to put together a solid “bounce back” performance that could help his Heisman campaign. Michigan State has struggled this year getting off the field, something Ohio State should be able to exploit tomorrow night. Sparty is 88th in the country in 3rd down % on defense while Ohio State sits at 22nd in 3rd down conversion rate. And while MSU is solid in the red zone, sitting at 38th in the country in opponent TD % in the red zone, the Buckeyes come in having scored a touchdown on every red zone possession so far this season. OHIO STATE DEFENSE vs MICHIGAN STATE OFFENSE Last Saturday marked the first game of the season in which the Buckeyes showed any sorts of kinks in the armor on the defensive side of the ball. They allowed their first two touchdowns of the season, and at times in the first half, struggled to get off the field as Marshall had two drives of 10+ plays. Jim Knowles voiced his displeasure about the defense this week when asked why no one was awarded a player of the game on defense. He demands perfection. Good news for this defense is that Michigan State is very mediocre, at best, in all aspects of their offense. Their rushing attack ranks 69th in the country in production, they have the 113th most efficient passing attack, and they’ve committed 10 turnovers through four games to start the season. Sparty’s starting QB Aidan Chiles threw three INT’s in their last matchup vs BC and while he’s an athletic kid, I can’t see him finding much success vs the Buckeyes tomorrow night. Expect the Buckeyes to double their current total and force multiple turnovers tomorrow night. Sparty has done a decent job of sustaining drives so far at this point, ranking 29th in the country in 3rd down conversion rate and should provide a good test for the defense kicking off conference play. Sparty’s red zone offense, however, is a different story. MSU is 120th in the country in red zone touchdown % which is surprising given their athleticism at the QB position who’s already rushed for three scores on the season. Ohio State needs to lock in on Chiles in the red zone and stop him from creating plays with his legs in order to keep them out of the endzone. FINAL ANALYSIS The Buckeyes have won seven straight games vs Michigan State and don’t expect that to change tomorrow. That being said, with this being the first road game of the season and a primetime matchup, I wouldn’t be shocked if the offense comes out a little slower than what we’ve seen vs Western Michigan and Marshall, especially with Sparty’s rush defense being the best Ohio State has faced to this point. I’m not sure if I see us cracking 40 for a fourth straight week, but with solid QB play from Howard and hopefully a couple turnovers from this defense, I expect a comfortable win when it’s all said and done from the Buckeyes. 38-10 final score prediction.