Week 4 Analytic Preview - Ohio State vs Marshall

ProjectPat · 2024-09-20T22:48:18+00:00

Ohio State enters their Week 4 matchup as 39.5 point favorites over Marshall, a third straight massive spread for the Buckeyes to open up the 2024 college football season. Let's take a deeper dive into the analytics and what to watch for as Ohio State looks to continue its impressive start. OHIO STATE OFFENSE vs MARSHALL DEFENSE The Buckeyes offense has been impressive to start the season, highlighted by back to back 50+ point showings vs Akron and Western Michigan. Will Howard leads a passing attack that comes in 11th in the nation in production and 10th in the nation in success rate. Most importantly, Howard has yet to commit a turnover through two games. Marshall's secondary grades out as the 17th best in the nation in terms of PFF coverage grade and 23rd in production against the pass. I'm not overly concerned as these numbers need to be taken lightly with one of Marshall's two opponents being an FCS school in Stony Brook. We saw Quinshon Judkins explode onto the scene against Western Michigan, rushing for 108 yards and 2 TD's. I think we can expect a similar rushing stat line for either (or maybe both) of our two feature backs against Marshall. The Thundering Herd come in ranked 70th in the country in success rate vs the run and allowed over 200 yards on the ground to Virginia Tech in Week 1 of the season. The Buckeyes are 18th in the country in rushing production (6.15 yards per carry) and 10th in success rate on the ground. Expect BIG days from the RB room tomorrow. OHIO STATE DEFENSE vs MARSHALL OFFENSE The one success point for Marshall through two games has been their rushing attack. The Herd are 11th in the nation in rushing production at over 6.5 yards per carry and they also rank 36th in the country in success rate. However, they can't throw the ball for shit. They are 97th in success rate on passing downs, 111th in passing production, and 129th in pass efficiency. Stone Earle, the Marshall QB, had just 131 yards through the air vs VT and now has to face arguably the best secondary in America, as the Buckeyes are allowing just 4.4 yards per attempt early on in the season. With an impending negative game script for Marshall, I thoroughly expect Ohio State to dominate on the defensive side of the ball. A somewhat solid rushing attack should be neutralized by the Herd playing from behind early in this one, and their inability to establish the run early could lead to a halftime score that we saw against Western Michigan.