Week 6 Analytical Preview - Ohio State vs Iowa

ProjectPat · 2024-10-04T20:53:46+00:00

Ohio State vs Iowa PREVIEW Tomorrow’s matchup against Iowa at The Shoe marks the start of the toughest four game stretch on the Buckeyes schedule this season. Iowa came into the season ranked in the top-25, but a tough loss to rival Iowa State dropped them out of the rankings and the Hawkeyes haven’t cracked the polls since, despite winning their last two games. Will the Buckeyes cruise to a fifth consecutive win with ease? Or is Iowa going to be able to rely on their defense enough to put Ohio State on upset watch? Let’s dive into the analytics. OHIO STATE OFFENSE vs IOWA DEFENSE It was the Jeremiah Smith show for the Buckeyes in East Lansing a week ago, as the freshman sensation scored twice and had two unbelievable one-handed grabs en route to a 38-7 win on the road in the teams conference opener. Will Howard was banged up a bit, but still threw for 244 on 67% passing. The offense ranks among the top-25 in the nation in both efficiency and production through the air, and I’m seeing another solid day from Will Howard in this one as Iowa’s secondary isn’t what it has been in the past. The Hawkeyes rank outside the top-50 in the country allowing close to 7 yards per attempt passing on 58.6%. We saw TreVeyon Henderson and Quinshon Judkins come down to Earth against Sparty last week, as both running backs were kept below 70 yards on the ground. That trend might continue again this week as the Iowa rush defense comes in ranked 5th in the nation in yards per carry and 23rd in rush defense grade. Don’t be surprised if the Buckeyes struggle moving the ball on the ground in this one, especially in the first half. As the game progresses, and the game script stays in Ohio State’s favor, we could see the Buckeyes offensive line start to get a push late. The biggest advantage for Ohio State on offense this weekend lies in the red zone. The Buckeyes come in ranked 2nd in the nation with a 93.75% touchdown rate in the red zone. The Hawkeyes, on the other hand, rank 133rd in the nation with 100% of their opponents red zone drives ending in touchdowns. While those numbers may be a bit skewed with it being early in the season, it’s still worth noting that the Iowa defense struggles with their backs against the goal line. OHIO STATE DEFENSE vs IOWA OFFENSE Jim Knowles and the Buckeye defense rebounded nicely after what was considered a “down week” by many against Marshall. The Silver Bullets held the Spartans offense to under 200 yards passing and under 50 yards rushing while only allowing 7 points. Now, we know how Iowa’s offense hasn’t been as bad as it has in past years, but it doesn't seem to be anything worth stressing over. The rushing attack is their mainstay. The Hawkeyes, led by Ohio native Kaleb Johnson, own the 12th most productive rushing attack in all of college football and rank 17th in the country in rushing grade. However, they haven’t faced a defense quite like the Buckeyes yet this season, as Ohio State comes in allowing just 1.84 yards per carry on the season, good for 3rd in the country. They also rank in the top-5 in rushing defense grade. This will be a battle in the trenches and a good test for the Buckeyes, especially looking down the road to the November 30th matchup vs Michigan. If the Buckeyes can prove they are able to shut down the run vs Iowa, we should feel even more confident heading into The Game. Cade McNamara is not a threat whatsoever. The former Michigan QB leads a passing attack that sits at 122nd in the country in production, passing for under 6 yards an attempt. McNamara ranks second to last in the Big Ten amongst qualified QB’s with an ADOT (average depth of target) of less than 7 yards. He doesn’t take deep shots. OSU’s defensive plan should be simple. Load the box on early downs to force Iowa into 3rd and longs. That’s been key to the Buckeyes early season success, as they’ve held opponents to just a 27.59% conversion rate on 3rd downs so far this season. FINAL ANALYSIS The quest to an undefeated season hits its first real test this Saturday, going up against one of the historically great defensive coaches in all of college football. And while the Iowa defensive front might be solid, their secondary struggles lead me to believe Will Howard will have another big day through the air. The Buckeyes might struggle again in the first half, but the plethora of weapons in the passing attack will be what prevails for this offense and I do believe that a positive game script will help the running game get going late. As long as the Ohio State defense keeps Kaleb Johnson contained, this game shouldn't be very close. Final score prediction: 37-3 Buckeyes.