Week 7 Analytical Preview - Ohio State vs Oregon

ProjectPat · 2024-10-12T11:50:16+00:00

Ohio State vs Oregon PREVIEW Today is the day. Arguably the biggest regular season matchup of the season in both the national landscape, and the Big Ten. Can Ryan Day and the Buckeyes survive their first real test of the season against Dan Lanning and the Ducks, on the road in a hostile environment? OHIO STATE OFFENSE vs OREGON DEFENSE Last week, the Buckeyes got off to a sluggish start against what most people forget is a very talented Iowa defense that ranks 5th in the nation in production against the run. To me, it wasn’t a surprise that it took some time for the offense to get going, but I don’t see that happening again today. Oregon’s rush defense is 76th in the country in production, and while you can contribute a lot of that to Ashton Jeanty’s performance against the Ducks, you have to remember that Boise State ranks 50th in run blocking grade. Ohio State ranks 11th in that category. The Buckeyes will be able to move the ball at will on the ground against this Oregon front with two of the most talented backs in the nation and a QB that is coming off a double digit carry performance. Where the Ducks succeed on defense is defending the pass. They’re top-10 in the country in both completion percentage allowed and yards per attempt through the air and grade out as the 5th best coverage unit. The Buckeyes have to find ways to stay out of 3rd and longs to keep the offense flowing and once they enter the redzone, I expect them to dominate. Ohio State is scoring touchdowns at the second highest clip in the nation when in the red zone, and the Ducks rank 98th in the country in red zone defense. Pound the rock in the red zone and let the two backs find paydirt. OHIO STATE DEFENSE vs OREGON OFFENSE Another week, another dominant defensive performance for the Buckeyes as they shut out the Hawkeyes for three quarters before conceding a meaningless TD late. Yes, I know Iowa’s offense is putrid on many levels, but the Buckeyes did what they were supposed to do and found ways to create turnovers, forcing three last weekend. Winning the turnover battle is crucial in these top-5 matchups. Oregon isn’t as good running the ball as we’re used to seeing from them. They currently sit 76th in rushing production and are also outside the top-50 nationally in both rushing and run blocking grade. The game plan for the Buckeyes has to be to stop the run on early downs and force Dillon Gabriel to push the ball downfield on 3rd and longs, something he’s not comfortable doing. Gabriel, a preseason Heisman favorite, hasn’t lived up to the billing despite having one of the best receiving units in the nation. Gabriel doesn’t throw the deep ball. He’s last in the Big Ten in aDOT (average depth of target) at just 6.5 yards, and he’s 9th in the conference with a 47.1 adjusted completion percentage on deep balls. I don’t believe Gabriel has the makings to beat this Buckeye secondary through the air. Ohio State is 4th in the country in success rate against the pass, as well as 13th in production allowing just 5.5 yards per attempt. Oh yeah, the Buckeyes also have the best red zone defense in the country and Oregon ranks 67th in the nation in finishing drives. Gabriel threw two red zone picks last weekend against a weak Michigan State secondary. FINAL ANALYSIS The analytics tell me that Ohio State wins this game comfortably. However, it’s a primetime game on the road in a hostile environment, so prepare yourselves for some chaos. This is Will Howard’s first true test since joining the Buckeyes and it’s crucial that he doesn't turn the ball over. Trust the guys up front and the two best running backs in the conference to do the bulk of the work offensively and leave Will Howard in manageable 3rd downs and the Buckeyes will be alright. Will Oregon score more than Marshall, who put up 14 points on the Buckeyes? That’s to be expected. But I believe the Ohio State defense will do enough to keep the Oregon rushing attack from truly getting going, and will take an ungodly performance from Gabriel for the Ducks to have a chance. Ohio State pulls away late in this one. 37-24 Buckeyes.