Week 12 Analytical Preview - Ohio State vs Northwestern

ProjectPat · 2024-11-16T15:22:09+00:00

Ohio State vs Northwestern PREVIEW Ryan Day’s squad comes into Wrigley Field fresh off a 45-0 shutout of the lowly Boilermakers. Should we expect a similar outcome in the windy city today vs Northwestern? Are the Buckeyes peaking at the right time as the calendar hits mid-November? Let’s dive into the analytics. OHIO STATE OFFENSE vs NORTHWESTERN DEFENSE Will Howard put on a show in The Shoe last week, throwing for 260 yards and accounting for 4 total touchdowns. I’m expecting similar numbers from Howard in this one, as the NW secondary ranks outside the top-50 in the country in both production and efficiency against opposing passing attacks. The Wildcats have allowed 240+ yards through the air in 4 of their last 6 games and have yet to face a receiving core even remotely close to the Buckeyes. Expect the passing game to be the focal point of the offense today as NW has done a solid job defending the run this year. The WIldcats come into today ranked 22nd in the nation in yards per carry allowed, holding their opponents leading rusher to under 70 yards in 7 of 9 games this season. Pretty impressive considering they’ve played with a negative game script for most of the season. The Buckeyes have been Jekyll & Hyde running the football over the last 4 games. They struggled against Oregon in the 2H and for most of the Nebraska game as well, then looked really good in Happy Valley running the ball, before looking pedestrian again last week vs Purdue. TreVeyon looked solid, but Quinshon struggled to get things going. This rushing attack has dipped to 21st in the country in production and will be something to monitor today. Another area to monitor will be just how well the Buckeyes do in the red zone. OSU’s red zone offense is 1st in the nation in TD%, while NW’s red zone defense is 13th in the country. Should be a good test for the Buckeyes and am eager to see what Chip Kelly dials up. OHIO STATE DEFENSE vs NORTHWESTERN OFFENSE The Buckeye defense continues to look like the best in the nation ever since the Oregon game. They’ve been dynamite in the red zone (1st in the nation in opposing TD%) and are top-10 in scoring defense as well as yards per play allowed. They very well could secure their second straight shutout today as the NW offense is putrid in every aspect. On the ground, the Wildcats rank 102nd in the country in yards per carry. Through the air, they’re 123rd in efficiency and 128th in production. They struggle to move the chains on 3rd downs, converting less than 30% of the time. They are anemic when it comes to finding the endzone, ranking 123rd in TD% in the red zone. All in all it’s going to be an ugly day for the Northwestern offense. If there’s one thing that the Wildcats do well, it’s that they rank in the top-50 in the country in both turnovers lost and sacks allowed. The Buckeyes haven’t relied on creating turnovers yet this season, and there’s been a lot of talk about the guys on the edge getting home. Today should provide a good test for both those areas on the defensive side of the ball FINAL ANALYSIS Similar to last week, I expect this game to be over by halftime. While I wouldn’t be surprised if NW’s defense gives OSU’s offense some fits, the inability for the Wildcats to be able to do anything on offense should leave Ohio State with solid field position all afternoon. Final Score Prediction Ohio State 37 Northwestern 6