Week 11 Analytical Preview - Ohio State vs Purdue

ProjectPat · 2024-11-09T15:26:29+00:00

Ohio State vs Purdue PREVIEW The Buckeyes look to stay hot after a huge victory over Penn State last week. This should be the first stress free game for Ohio State fans as the 1-7 Boilermakers come into town. Let’s break down the analytic side of things and deep dive into why this game will be over at halftime. OHIO STATE OFFENSE vs PURDUE DEFENSE The Buckeyes quieted many doubters last week with their ability to run the ball on a solid Penn State defense. The offensive line played extraordinary, especially on the last drive as the Buckeyes iced the game on 11 straight rushing plays. Things should be much easier for the Buckeyes on the ground this week, as Purdue ranks 71st in the country in success rate against the run and are giving up 5.07 yards a carry on the season, good for 113th in the country. Expect Trey and Quinshon to do plenty of damage today in the first half, and James Peoples to get things going in the second half. Will Howard and the Buckeyes receiving core should be able to find plenty of success too, as the Boilermakers are surrendering the third most yards per attempt on passing plays in all of FBS. They’re also 115th in completion percentage allowed and 129th in success rate vs the pass. Purdue struggles both on 3rd downs and in the red zone as well, ranking 128th and 124th respectively in both those metrics. The Buckeyes should be able to name their score today. OHIO STATE DEFENSE vs PURDUE OFFENSE The defense has looked dynamite ever since the Oregon game, and they played their best game of the season a week ago, holding Penn State to just 6 offensive points. Purdue has shown glimpses of success this year on offense but have struggled with consistency. They’ve had two 40+ point games this season, and they’ve also failed to score more than 10 points on four occasions. The one thing Purdue does somewhat well is run the football, as they’re 31st in the country in yards per rush. If the Buckeyes neutralize that, which they’ve done all season ranking in the top-10 in yards per carry, then it’ll be tough sledding for Purdue. They really struggle through the air, sitting at 101st in the country in success rate and 83rd in production on passing plays. With an impending negative game script, Purdue is going to be in plenty of passing situations and will probably find themselves in many 3rd and longs. Purdue is converting just 35% of 3rd downs on the season while the Buckeyes have the 16th best 3rd down defense in the country. In the red zone, the Buckeyes have a top-3 unit when it comes to TD% allowed, as we saw Penn State struggle there last week. Purdue ranks 90th in the country in red zone TD percentage. It’s going to be ugly today in The Shoe. FINAL ANALYSIS Get ready to turn your TV’s to a better game by halftime, or enjoy watching the 2nd and 3rd stringers for Ohio State, as I don’t see a way for Purdue to hang with the Buckeyes today. Let’s enjoy a stress free victory for Ohio State. Final Score Prediction: Ohio State 52 Purdue 10