Ohio State vs Michigan PREVIEW
It is time for war. We know the importance of this game for Ryan Day. We know what’s at stake for the Buckeyes in terms of their conference and national championship aspirations. But before any of that, the Buckeyes need to win today and to avenge three straight years of agony. Let’s dive into the analytics.
OHIO STATE OFFENSE vs MICHIGAN DEFENSE
It wasn’t their best showing last week, but the Buckeyes did enough offensively to steamroll Indiana in a top-5 matchup, and it’s hard not to feel good about what they can do vs Michigan today. Will Howard played a near perfect game. The rushing attack picked up as the game went on. And it’s hard not to expect a similar outcome offensively for the Buckeyes in this one.
Michigan ranks among the tops in the country in rushing defense, allowing just 3.13 yards per carry. I wouldn't be surprised if Ohio State struggles to run the ball early on in this one, kind of like what we’ve seen at times this season, but it’s imperative that the offensive line finds a way to get a push in the second half. Zach has broken it down countless times on film throughout the season, but the Buckeyes need to take advantage when Mason Graham and Kenneth Grant are off the field. Other teams have run at will when those two are out of the game and it will be imperative for the Buckeyes to do the same today.
But in my opinion, and according to the analytics, the story of the day is going to be Will Howard and this passing attack. Howard has shown up in big moments time and time again this season and he continuously has gotten better week by week. The deep ball has improved, his timing has improved, and with all that, his confidence seems to be at an all-time high. You can see it on the field, and on the sidelines. The offense will go as he goes today, and it’s hard to see him not having success. Michigan ranks 39th in the country in yards per attempt allowed, and they’re 79th in opponents completion percentage. With Will Johnson out, it’s hard to imagine a way for Michigan to bottle up this talented receiving core. I’m expecting 250+ passing and 3+ TD’s through the air from the offense today.
Perhaps the biggest drop off on the defensive side of the ball that no one is really talking about this year for Michigan is their ability (or should I say inability) to get off the field. Michigan ranked 7th in the country in opponents 3rd down conversion rate last year at 29.08%. This year, they rank 98th in the country, as opponents are converting 42.68% of 3rd downs against the Wolverines. Ohio State sits at 44th in the country offensively on 3rd down. Not great, but should be enough to give them the advantage today in extending drives.
Similarly, Michigan has seen a drop off in their red zone defense from a year ago. The Wolverines gave up a TD on just 44% of red zone trips last year (5th in the country) and are giving up a TD on 55% of red zone trips this year, which isn’t terrible as they sit at 41st in the country, but it’s a significant decline. Oh yeah, and Ohio State is the #1 red zone offense in the country, scoring a TD on 84.09% of red zone opportunities. Advantage Buckeyes again.
OHIO STATE DEFENSE vs MICHIGAN OFFENSE
While everyone is hoping for Ryan Day to hang a 50 burger on Michigan today, the real landslide might come on this side of the ball. The Ohio State defense has been arguably the best in the country for the entirety of the season. They are top-10 nationally in scoring defense, total defense, rushing defense, passing defense, sacks per game, and red zone defense. The only areas in which the Buckeyes rank outside the top-50 nationally are completion percentage allowed (61st) and turnovers forced (57th). This is an all-time defense that should make things very difficult for Michigan today.
The Wolverines don’t do much well offensively, which has been well documented all season. They rank 132nd in the country in passing production with a QB carousel that has lasted all season long, leading to an inefficient rushing attack that sits at 62nd in the country in yards per attempt. Not only are they struggling to move the football, they’re struggling to hold onto the football, sitting at 84th in the country in turnovers lost.
I fully expect the Ohio State defense to get sexual on the Wolverine offense today. Load the box early, force them into 3rd and longs, and take advantage of a mediocre 3rd down offense that sits at just 49th in the country. Ohio State has been so good at limiting long runs this season, giving up the 3rd fewest 10+ yard runs in the country and the 14th fewest 20+ yard runs. That’s been Michigan’s offense for the last few years. It ends today.
FINAL ANALYSIS
Revenge. That’s what today is about. Everything points in the Buckeyes favor today. Every metric. Every analytic. And Vegas knows that, making this the largest spread for The Game in the history of the rivalry at 19.5.
Michigan has closed as 17 point underdogs twice before in 1969 and 1996, and guess what? They won both those games outright.
So I say this. Expect a close game. As much as we want this to be over at halftime. And as much as the analytics point to this being a blowout. Manage your expectations. Anything can happen.
Final Score Prediction
Ohio State 31 Michigan 17
