Arch Manning Didn't Get Better. Sark Stopped Asking Him To.

Texas 24, Ohio State 23. The Longhorns scored all 21 of their points in the fourth quarter and everybody is going to credit the quarterback. The tape says a coordinator changed the plan. Meanwhile Ryan Day sat on a twenty-point lead with fourteen minutes left and never called another football game.

Ohio State led 23-3 in the third quarter in Austin.

They scored zero points in the fourth. Texas scored twenty-one.

Two coordinators decided this game and neither one of them plays quarterback.

Eleven of thirteen, and almost none of it is his
Arch Manning's fourth quarter looks like a coming-out party. 11-of-13 for 99 yards and a touchdown after going 12-of-24 for 96 with a pick through three.

Now look at what he was asked to do.

His average depth of target was around nine yards through three quarters. In the fourth it was about six. He did not attempt a single throw past twenty yards in the entire quarter. Five of his thirteen attempts went to Emmett Mosley, all five caught, 57 yards, mostly at or near the line.

And Texas ran it 24 times for 103 yards after halftime.

That is not a quarterback figuring it out. That is Steve Sarkisian looking at three quarters of film, deciding his quarterback could not win a down for him, and building a fourth quarter where he didn't have to. Quick game. RPOs. Run the football. Let the tempo and the clock do the work.

One more piece and it's the honest one: Ohio State stopped hitting him. Both sacks and every meaningful hurry came in the first three quarters. Give any quarterback in America a clean pocket and a six-yard route tree and he'll complete eleven of thirteen.

What he actually did with the football
I wrote in the offseason that Arch Manning is an out-of-system quarterback. When it's broken he can make throws almost nobody in this sport can make. When it's clean and pretty, he gets confused.

Saturday was the cleanest possible confirmation.

Third-and-4 at his own 31 in the first quarter. A receiver pops open immediately for the first down. He doesn't pull the trigger. He scans, he starts to run, and Riley Pettijohn sacks him for ten. Throw it. It was there before he finished his drop.

Two-minute drill before the half. Matt Patricia drops eight into cover two. All the time in the world, a receiver wide open in the middle of the field, and he misses it badly.

Third-and-7 in the third quarter. Same hole in the same coverage, Mosley sitting in the middle of the field. He misses it again.

Then a post to Cam Coleman on third-and-15 that went five yards over his head. A deep post into a single-high safety that he overthrew past both the receiver and the defender. A first-down ball from his own 25 that was nearly picked. A deep over that Earl Little Jr. read perfectly and dropped, which should have been six the other way. And a checkdown thrown over a running back's head with a rusher closing.

Now be fair to him, because the box score isn't. The interception is not his. Sark isolated Coleman on Jalen McClain, Coleman was wide open, and it was a good throw. It bounced off his body and McClain caught it at the 12.

Texas also dropped five balls. Coleman's became the pick. Ryan Wingo dropped a touchdown from the 30. Emaree Winston dropped an RPO on a drive they needed and got pulled right after. Spencer Shannon dropped a spot route delivered high and hot on third-and-6. A running back dropped a checkdown on the final drive.

Take all five out and he's still the same player I graded in July. I've got him at a D. The C-plus as a pure passer I gave him off the Florida tape is generous after this.

Ryan Day stopped calling plays with fourteen minutes left
Now the part Columbus has to sit with.

Ohio State ran 39 early-down plays in the first three quarters. In the fourth quarter, across three possessions, they ran eleven.

The mix barely moved. The volume evaporated, because the drives stopped happening.

Go through the decisions in order.

Third quarter, 11:55 left, fourth-and-4 at the Texas 39, up 20-3. He punts. Kicks it 26 net yards to the 13. Up seventeen against an offense that had scored three points, and he hands them the ball instead of trying to end it.

Fourth quarter, up thirteen, fourteen minutes on the clock. They start milking the play clock down to five. You are not protecting a lead at that point. You are handing possessions to a team that needs them.

And then there's the call I keep coming back to: a Bo Jackson stretch to the boundary in field goal range that lost a yard. That's the same boundary stretch that got stuffed twice against Ball State ten days earlier. It didn't work against a MAC team.

Compare that to what Sarkisian did on his own side of the fifty. He went for it on fourth-and-9 from his own 42 and told the room afterward exactly why: "No, that's a loser thing. Winners win, baby. Keeping it close? They didn't hire me to keep it close."

One coach went for it on fourth-and-9 from his own 42. The other punted on fourth-and-4 from the opponent's 39 with a seventeen-point lead. Whatever you think of Sark's quote, the scoreboard settled the argument.

They quit throwing it to Jeremiah Smith
This is the number that made me put my drink down.

Through three quarters: 13 targets, 8 catches, 164 yards, a touchdown.

Fourth quarter: three targets, zero catches.

Every single ball Jeremiah Smith caught in this football game came before the fourth quarter. In the quarter where Ohio State needed one drive, the best receiver in college football was targeted three times and finished with nothing.

Two of those are on him and I'll say so. A drop on third-and-4 out of press man, and no release on a fade on the drive before the missed field goal. His two worst plays of the night came on the two possessions that mattered most.

But look at the third-down distances, because this is the whole story in one table.

Through three quarters they faced twelve third downs at an average of 8.6 yards and converted six of them. They converted a third-and-13. They converted two third-and-10s.

In the fourth quarter they faced two third downs at an average of 4.0 yards and converted neither.

They were better at third-and-long while they were attacking than they were at third-and-short once they started protecting. That isn't bad luck. That's what happens when an offense stops trying to score.

The timeout
Texas had first-and-goal at the 1 with under a minute left, and all three of their timeouts. Ohio State had one.

Day burned it at 0:53.

Afterward he said they discussed letting Texas score on second down and decided they wanted to see if they could get off the field. His words: "It didn't work out."

Give the defense this much. They got two stops. Hollywood Smothers got stuffed for nothing on first down by Jason Moore and Payton Pierce. On second down Moore punched the ball out at the goal line and Texas recovered it themselves, and the automatic review upheld it as short.

Then Smothers went up the middle on third down and it was 24-23.

And Ohio State got the ball back at their own 25 with seventeen seconds and no timeouts. A holding call on Austin Siereveld backed them to the 15, Devin McCuin caught five, and Julian Sayin threw a pick from his own 20 that was taken at the Texas 40.

That last possession is not a Hail Mary story. That is a team trying to gain forty yards with no way to stop the clock, because the timeout got spent on a goal-line stand that was never going to hold three times.

Put Jeremiah Smith in the Slot

Texas plays press quarters, which means their safeties have no help. Ohio State has the best receiver in football and just spent a week moving him everywhere. That's the game. Everything else I found on all four week one tapes is below.

By Zach Smith

I watched all four films. Ohio State offense and defense against Ball State, Texas offense and defense against Texas State. This is what actually matters tonight.
Start with Will Muschamp's coverage, because everything follows from it.

Press quarters has one hole and it's the safeties​

Texas plays press quarters as a base. The corners do not back up. They sit on you at the line with quarters behind it, and the safeties are cover players with a read.

That's the old Michigan State defense, and it has one weakness that has never changed. You can isolate those cover safeties one-on-one with your slot, and there is nobody to help them.

So put Jeremiah Smith in the slot. Give him a two-way go on a safety. Slot fade or post, his choice off leverage. Then set it up first with a ten or twelve yard dig or a wrap to get that safety to trigger downhill, and once he bites you run the big post behind it.

I saw Texas State do a version of it. Double dig, the safety jumped the first one, and there was grass behind him. Watch for that tonight.

And it gets better. When Texas got into heavy personnel, they checked to press man with no safety help at all. Pure isolation on the boundary. If they line up like that against Ohio State, Julian Sayin can check to a slant or a fade at the line based on leverage and nobody in the building can stop it. Arthur Smith should have three of those shots drawn up before the first snap.

Why did they blitz that much?​

Now the part of the Texas defensive film that stuck with me.

They blitzed the hell out of Texas State. Boundary blitzes, fire zones, five-man pressure, green dog on the back. Against a Sun Belt team.

If your pass rush is that good, why? Why not sit in four-man pressure and let Colin Simmons and that front get home against a team you're better than at every position?

My honest read: because the rush is not that good. I watched Simmons bull rush and get nothing. I watched him speed rush and run himself past the quarterback. When they stand him up and blitz him inside he's pretty useless. The interior got some push from Hero Kanu and Alex January, and that line plays really well with their hands, but I did not see ass-kickers. I saw a coordinator who needed extra bodies to create pressure.

They do have one good wrinkle and Ohio State's line has to be ready for it. Texas gets into a bear front, five down with Simmons standing up. There are two ways to block that: full slide with the back on the edge, or a match call that leaves your running back one-on-one with Simmons. So what Muschamp does is take a step forward to make the line declare, blitz Simmons, and then drop him out. Now it's a four-man rush with a simulated pressure look and your quarterback is expecting something that never came.

That's the play that gets Sayin hit tonight if nobody warns him. Get the protection right and it's a free four-man rush against five blockers.

Attack the center​

Texas has two problems up front on offense and I'd point both of them out to Matt Patricia in the first meeting of the week.

Connor Robertson, number 62 at center, is the weak link. He got swim-moved by a Texas State defensive tackle. He missed a linebacker on a bear front. He got beat on a counter where the puller had nobody to block because the three-technique jetted upfield and nobody accounted for it. Every lineman misses a block. This was a pattern.

Melvin Siani, number 71 at right tackle, is problem two. He got bull rushed on a twist, got beat again later, and he's the guy who smacked his own helmet performatively after an offside. He's a transfer from Temple and Wake Forest and he flashed as maybe not that good.

Now look at what Ohio State's interior did against Ball State. John Walker one-on-one with a guard and ragdolling him. James Smith winning twice inside and getting a horse collar called on a sack he'd already made. Khary Wilder, a true freshman, playing defensive tackle in a pass rush package and cooking a center clean.

That's the matchup. Trevor Goosby at left tackle is good and I'm not building a plan around beating him. Get after 62 and 71.

Philip Daniels is Ohio State's whole game​

And now the part Buckeye fans don't want to read.

Philip Daniels went the wrong way on the first play of the season. A returning starter. First snap. Against Ball State.

He got benched after two drives, they moved Austin Siereveld out to right tackle and put Gabe VanSickle at guard, and then they brought Daniels back and he got beat clean again. Multiple times. His technique is a mess. He gets top-heavy, his head goes forward, he turns and punches instead of pass setting. Watch him next to Ian Moore on the same tape and it looks like two different sports.

So the conundrum is VanSickle or Daniels, and neither answer is comfortable. If it's Daniels, Colin Simmons is going to live on that edge, and a speed rush that runs past the quarterback against Texas State becomes a strip sack in Columbus.

There is good news and it's real. The twist pickup on the right side was elite. Carson Hinzman handled it, and there's one rep where VanSickle feels he isn't getting rushed and his eyes snap outside to find the twist and he stones it. That's coaching. Credit Arthur Smith and Tyler Bowen.

Same old Arch​

I wrote in the offseason that Arch Manning is an out-of-system quarterback with a passing grade his legs are propping up. Week one did nothing to change it.

He blew a curl-flat read. That's a movement key. The inside linebacker banks to the spot, which means one guy is covering both the curl and the flat, and Arch forces it into the covered man instead of taking the open one. My sixth grade team ran that concept. That's a turnover-worthy throw on a simple read.

He underthrew two deep balls that were touchdowns. Ryan Wingo on a double move with the corner beaten by five yards, and a Cam Coleman fade with four yards of separation. Both completed, both forced the receiver to stop and wait, both should have been six. That won't show up in his stat line and you should know about it anyway.

Then he threw a pick in the end zone where he never looked at the safety once. Stared it down, double clutched, walked it right to him.

And he took a sack in a two-minute drill by leaving the pocket and then stopping his feet. Keep moving. If you leave, you run or you throw it away. Don't stand still with eleven guys pursuing you.

What he does do, and I'll give it to him, is extend plays. He scrambled for real yards, he made throws off platform, and he's a good athlete at six-four. Ohio State's rush cannot let him out of the pocket clean.

Texas has two backs and four tight ends​

The rest of that offense is legitimate and I want to be clear about it.

Hollywood Smothers and Relic Brown are both transfers and both are explosive. Smothers has more juice, Brown is a low-center-of-gravity bowling ball with real vision and acceleration. They hit holes. Sark runs heavy 12 personnel almost all the time because those tight ends can block, and they have four of them who play.

Cam Coleman and Ryan Wingo outside is as good a pair as Ohio State will see all year. Emmett Mosley V in the slot is solid, and keep an eye on Jermaine Bishop Jr., the true freshman who was in the game early.

They also miss-IDed the front on the second play of the game and left a defender unblocked on a zone run. That's either a coach or a center, and Patricia's front will make them pay for it more than Texas State did.

The thing that actually decides this​

Go back to that Texas defensive tape and find the play where Texas State's quarterback scrambles for 30-plus.

Texas is in man coverage. Every defensive back has his back to the football. The pocket doesn't even really break, the quarterback just sees that nobody is looking at him, takes off, and gets a huge chunk.

I said on the broadcast that I hope Julian Sayin watched that film. He scrambled twice against Ball State, once for a fourth-and-goal touchdown against match coverage with everybody covered. That was the one thing I needed to see from him after eleven scrambles all of last season.

Texas plays a ton of man. Man means backs turned. If Sayin does it two or three times tonight, Ohio State wins this football game, because it breaks the only coverage Muschamp has that can handle Jeremiah Smith.

What worries me​

Field position. Ohio State started drives on their own one, their own six, and inside the ten three separate times against Ball State, and Legend Bey brought kicks out of the end zone he had no business bringing out. Against Ball State it cost nothing. Against this Texas defense, five drives inside your own ten is a scoring drought.

And Ohio State's defense won reps all day and finished almost none of them. One sack against a MAC team. Arch extends plays better than Ball State's quarterback does. Get him down.

Where I land​

Ohio State has the better secondary, the better receiver, and a quarterback playing with more control than the one on the other sideline. Texas has the better running backs, a scheme that will make you earn every yard, and one obvious way to win this game, which is to get Colin Simmons on Philip Daniels and end drives.

Put Smith in the slot, take the shots on those safeties, and protect the right edge. Do that and Columbus is fine.

Appreciate you, Menace Army.

Since Zach has started to do these articles, and I typed this quasi-essay to share my sentiments going into this game with friends. I know I’m not Zach but I figured I might as well share this here and see if any of you think this is good.
Forgive the spotty grammar because I typed this over text instead of Microsoft Word or Google Docs.

Julian is better than Arch imo bc he’s more accurate and doesn’t do the stupid shit Arch does sometimes. Arch had 3 turnover worthy throws against Texas State. One got picked, he lucked out on the other two though one of the two he lucked out on was the same play as the Keonte Scott to the house call in last December’s Cotton Bowl. Our DBs have to make sure they land with the ball when he makes those throws, and they have to keep up with the Texas WRs. Their RBs are better than expected and their OL is solid, so Eddrick Houston, Khary Wilder, etc need to be all squared away on the ground. Our defense is young, but if they can tackle better than they did last week you have every reason to trust them. They have to do that and make sure pressures end with sacks.

Offensively, this has to look like the Georgia game in my opinion. Will Muschamp was blitzing a bunch even against Texas State so I imagine he’s going to do the exact same tonight even though the scheme itself probably looks more sophisticated. The offensive line has to not die, and Julian has to be ready to dance in the pocket and launch missiles to Jeremiah, Devin, BI, etc even when he’s about to get hit. This didn’t happen against Miami, and that’s why they lost. Texas is probably going to test them in the same way, but the good news is that they don’t quite have Reuben Bain and Akeem Mesidor. Number 95 at DT is a motherfucker for them and they’ll line up in Bear defense a lot to clamp the run game. I hold the belief Ohio State has to throw to open the run which goes to my point about Julian taking the next step like CJ did in the Georgia game.
The Texas defense definitely got cooked on a few different plays, but Texas St often either failed to finish the drive with a TD or they turned the ball over. Accordingly, Ohio State has to maintain ball security and execute in the red zone. Thankfully they were perfect in the red zone against Ball State with the caveat that it’s Ball State and one trip came to the 4th down where Julian scrambled into the end zone.

The other note is if Ryan establishes a lead, the Buckeyes need to keep going until the final whistle whether it’s when the clock hits triple zeros or in overtime. Ryan has this obnoxious way of letting his foot off the gas after establishing a lead in big games. This cost them the games against Clemson in 2019 and Georgia in 2022, so it’s something to look out for.

If you took the time to read this, I hope you enjoyed it.

The Helping Technician is claiming Texas is scrolling message boards for inside information, particularly theirs because they have the best inside information. Lol.