Ohio State vs Penn State PREVIEW
We’ve entered the biggest game of the regular season for the Buckeyes, given what’s transpired over recent weeks. What once seemed like an undefeated season has come crashing down over the last three weeks. A heartbreaking loss to Oregon and followed up with a flat performance against Nebraska coming off a bye week has made this game, in my opinion, a must-win in regards to the Buckeyes season. Sure, a two-loss Ohio State team still might make it to the expanded playoffs, but nothing is given, especially with Indiana and Michigan to finish the regular season. Today is a MUST WIN for Ryan Day to get this team back on track to win a National Championship. Let’s dive into how it can happen.
OHIO STATE OFFENSE vs PENN STATE DEFENSE
How big of a loss is Josh Simmons? In six quarters the Buckeyes have played without him over the last two games, the offense has mustered just 31 points, while rushing for just 2.4 yards per carry. It’s absolutely imperative for the Buckeyes to find a stable rushing attack in today’s matchup to get the season back on track. With Zen Michalski officially ruled out this morning, I anticipate Donovan Jackson to slide over to tackle, and either Luke Montgomery or Austin Siereveld to man the left guard position. Penn State has a dynamic rushing defense on paper, as the Nittany Lions rank 2nd in success rate vs the run and grade out as the 20th best rush defense in the nation. However, Penn State hasn't faced a rushing attack even remotely close to Ohio State, who rank in the top-15 nationally in rushing production, success rate, rushing grade and run blocking grade. I like Chip Kelly’s experience to shine today and produce big plays on the ground, neutralizing a strong pass rush from Penn State led by Abdul Carter.
Then there’s Will Howard, who’s played some really good football over the past two games, making efficient throws and finding success with the deep ball, but who’s also had some costly mental errors, especially last week vs Nebraska, ending four consecutive drives for the Buckeyes. Howard, a PA kid, has talked about how important this game is to him, growing up a Penn State fan but unable to receive an offer from them, and I believe he has a real opportunity to thrive in this game. The Penn State secondary has some flaws that can be exposed by the Ohio State passing attack today. The Nittany Lions pass defense has a success rate outside the top-25, while having yet to face a passing attack that ranks inside the top-50 nationally in terms of production. The best passing attack they’ve faced thus far is Illinois. Jeremiah Smith, Emeka Egbuka, and Carnell Tate are all better than any receiver the Nittany Lions have faced this year.
OHIO STATE DEFENSE vs PENN STATE OFFENSE
The defense responded nicely last weekend following their let down performance against Oregon. Sure, Nebraska’s offense isn’t elite by any means, but the Buckeyes still held them to under 275 total yards of offense while generating 13 TFL’s and 3 sacks. The defense will have to produce similar numbers to slow down this potent Penn State offense that is clicking on all cylinders behind mastermind Andy Kotelnicki calling plays. Penn State ranks in the top-15 nationally in passing success rate, rushing success rate, passing grade and rushing grade. If you’ve watched the Coach’s Film Room on Penn State, then you’ve seen all the crazy formations, dynamic run packages, and countless trick plays that have wreaked havoc on opposing defenses all season long. They find creative ways to get their three best players plenty of touches on offense: TE Tyler Warren and RB’s Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen. The trio average over 35 touches a game combined and are the reason Penn State has been so successful without any real production from their WR room.
The Buckeyes defense will have to key in on those three players to win this game. We’ve seen Sonny Styles lockdown Brock Bowers, and we know the kind of athlete that Caleb Downs is. I anticipate the two of them to have big time games for Ohio State today.
FINAL ANALYSIS
As previously mentioned, I view this game as a de facto MUST WIN for Ohio State. If this team is serious about defeating TTUN, winning the Big Ten, and making a run for a national title, they have to look the part today.
Injuries happen, but at Ohio State, they shouldn’t derail the whole season. If the offensive line shows improvement today, then the offense will get back to their form from early on in the season.
Ryan Day can’t win vs top-5 teams and James Franklin can’t beat Ohio State. Something has to give today, and I believe the talent at the skill positions for Ohio State will be the difference, as well as their ability to contain Penn State’s three offensive weapons.
Final Score Prediction: Ohio State 31 Penn State 20
